Each question was designed to enhance futures literacy and contextualize the scenario process. Three of those questions are presented below. This entailed working through a series of questions. As face to face workshops were impossible, a modified version of the Six Pillars (Inayatullah, 2008) was developed. In the introductory online presentation – conducted by Inayatullah – participants answered questions on the future (Inayatullah, 2015). These dialogues focused on Egypt in 2050 in numerous areas including sustainability, education, and deep inclusion. The exercise builds on the previous collaborations in foresight exercises between the Government of Egypt and the UN system, namely, the Alexandria Dialogues (Karlstetter, 2019). This article summarizes the process and key findings of the exercise and the full report is available here. It did this process in collaboration with Sohail Inayatullah. Given the critical role of manufacturing sector in the economy and the new pressures and opportunities presented by COVID-19, the task force organized the foresight exercise i this sector. In this context, the task force decided to conduct a series of strategic foresight sessions on critical sectors of the economy. The COVID-19 task force constituted by the Government of Egypt (led by Ministry of Planning and Economic Development) and the UN system in Egypt identified a series of response measures with a view to prepare for the ‘new normal’ and accelerate the recovery. The Government of Egypt realized that COVID-19 has far reaching implications for all sectors of the Economy. The scenario project focused on actions to reorient business for the new post-COVID-19 economic conditions and realities, while looking at a broader set of emerging issues. At a broader level, the exercise also sought to enhance futures literacy in Egypt.Īs identified by UNIDO (2020), several types of industrial policy actions can be taken to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 oriented at keeping business afloat during COVID-19, maintain employment and adapting business. Leaders from the Ministry of Planning and Economic Development, the United Nations system in Egypt, the Federation of Egyptian Industries, and business bodies helped prepare the scenarios. We did not seek to predict the future, but rather to create alternative and preferred futures so as to mitigate risk and create new opportunities for manufacturing. Through a series of Foresight workshops, these and other questions were answered. Indeed, how should Egypt position itself in terms of not just the pandemic (near-shoring, localization), but other disruptions such as changes in technology (robotics and automation, the Internet of everything, digitalized government, 3D printing) greening and sustainability (the shift to a circular economy, eco-friendly products) and peer to peer and a sharing economy (blockchain, the UBER model of business)? Or will the gap between the rich and poor, the prepared and unprepared, continue to widen? What are the futures of manufacturing in Egypt in the next five to ten years?Ĭan Egypt use the COVID-19 crisis to quickly retool and create a revolution in manufacturing unlocking business?
Sohail Inayatullah, Arun Jacob and Reham Rizk
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